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Create a Positive Expectation When You Gamble

What exactly does this phrase ‘Positive Expectation’ mean? Does it mean you have your good luck charm in hand, you’re wearing your lucky shirt and have a super positive attitude, or have just decided that today is YOUR day, and you are definitely going to win, no negative thoughts?

Well, the answer is none of these really, although a touch of confidence will certainly help. Positive expectation can be straightforward in some areas and games and more complex and hidden in other situations.

Your negative or positive expectation is how much you can expect to lose or win in any gambling scenario. When you can mathematically work it out that you could expect to win, you have a positive expectation. When you have done the math that tells you that you can expect to lose, you have a negative expectation.

Lets see how “positive expectation” works…

Here is a very simple example, bearing in mind it is just one way positive expectation works. Say you flip a coin and win $1 every time it lands on heads, and conversely you lose $1 each time it lands on tails. Because we know that over an infinite number of flips, the coin will land 50% of the time on heads and 50% on tails, your expectation will be zero.

Now change the betting to winning $1 for heads and only losing 50c for landing on tails. Flip the coin 100 times with winning heads 50 times ¬– your profit is $50, minus your losses of $25 for landing on tails 50 times. You now have a positive expectation! For 100 flips of the coin, your positive expectation is 25c per bet.

How do you create a positive expectation in Poker?

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In poker, you can create a positive expectation in a number of ways. For a start, choosing to join a table with highly experienced players will immediately generate a negative expectation. Try to seek out a table where players are less experienced than you. This will give you an immediate edge. There are numerous decisions a poker player has to make during a hand, so working out how to create a positive expectation is tough. But there are some easier decisions: although this changes, when your position at the table is right near the dealer, you are at a disadvantage, so play cautiously. If you’re holding a pair of kings or aces, you’re in with a chance wherever your position at the table, and conversely fold if all you have is a pair of nines or worse.

Calculating your positive and negative expectations in Blackjack

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Blackjack is another game where you can calculate your positive and negative expectations you can find a lot of advice and opinions online (although some of it is rather devious and of dubious standards), and even sports betting can become more profitable by applying some mathematical skills to create a positive expectation when you gamble.

To take your gaming to the next level, we suggest you dive into the numerous internet articles you’ll find on the subject, and good luck! 

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